tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post1659430635291277091..comments2023-10-09T11:28:14.030-05:00Comments on The Adventures of Johnny Northside: Don Samuels Versus Four Angry Political Midgets In An IRV World...Johnny Northsidehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03694273579383113753noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-2653553953556015882009-09-04T16:06:35.316-05:002009-09-04T16:06:35.316-05:00Chipper looks like the world's most fmous squi...Chipper looks like the world's most fmous squirrel from Nat-Geo:<br /><br />http://www.startribune.com/lifestyle/travel/minnesota/57255932.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUsXAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-17539029305110924462009-09-03T21:59:22.998-05:002009-09-03T21:59:22.998-05:00The idea behind IRV is that people have preference...The idea behind IRV is that people have preferences about all the candidates. That they are informed about all of them. They like A more than B, but they'll live with C. OTOH, They can't stand D. This scenario depends on the fact that all the candidates are minimally qualified, not crazy or gadflies or joke candidates. Single ballot tends to generate one or two strong candidates (and a 2 party structure). IRV tends to generate a field of candidates and multiplicity of parties. But that's over time. I'm not a fan of IRV because it just makes things more complicated for the average voter which is a disincentive to voting and less transparent when people are already complaining about lack of transparency w/voter fraud. You end up depending on computers to do the calculations in a close race. And you thought recounts were bad...Margarethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04504204916698763787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-91759176639049582292009-09-03T21:41:54.474-05:002009-09-03T21:41:54.474-05:00Yeah, I'd agree with Megan to say Natalie has ...Yeah, I'd agree with Megan to say Natalie has more of an opportunity to have an upset. She did represent the ward and some of my neighbors still have her signs from last time around. Most of the Kenya Knight endorsement battle is inside baseball to the regular voter who doesn't read this blog and wasn't there.Margarethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04504204916698763787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-1922817685697906052009-09-03T20:52:28.083-05:002009-09-03T20:52:28.083-05:00YES! we should definitely start a campaign to writ...YES! we should definitely start a campaign to write in Sondra as the second choice write-in candidate! YES! can we start an fb group for that? :)veg*nationhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06038204128140578947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-3918692007459711152009-09-03T18:33:19.339-05:002009-09-03T18:33:19.339-05:00Geez, the ONE TIME I crunched numbers in my head, ...Geez, the ONE TIME I crunched numbers in my head, it HAD to be with you around. You better watch out, John. If your blog makes it harder for me to get a date with a hot woman, I just might sue.Jeff Skreneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14597476540441866248noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-83950074649456103922009-09-03T18:13:11.828-05:002009-09-03T18:13:11.828-05:00I SAW YOU calculate prior to checking out, Jeff. R...I SAW YOU calculate prior to checking out, Jeff. Remember that time I gave you the energy saver lightbulb for free and I said, hey, since you didn't buy that item you should be able to count that toward your savings? And you wouldn't do that? Remember the time you preferred to go shopping before your coupons ran out rather than--at that very moment--drink and socialize with HOT WOMEN?<br /><br />I stand by the post as written and I'm glad for the opportunity to elaboroate.Johnny Northsidehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03694273579383113753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-59821054008531442642009-09-03T17:59:27.331-05:002009-09-03T17:59:27.331-05:00I also need to clear up one major factual error in...I also need to clear up one major factual error in here that John put down. I do NOT calculate how much money I save on coupons at the grocery store.<br /><br />Cub foods does that FOR me on their receipts. I merely keep track of that number and have a goal I strive for.Jeff Skreneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14597476540441866248noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-91300117581738104822009-09-03T17:46:26.985-05:002009-09-03T17:46:26.985-05:00@ Veg-nation - I suppose we could always vote for ...@ Veg-nation - I suppose we could always vote for DON Samuels first choice - then write in SONDRA Samuels second choice - THEN we could write in Chipper the Entrepreneurial Squirrel as THIRD choice!!!! <br /><br />Yeah! That's how I'm voting!!!!MeganG.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-23455369019226666182009-09-03T17:44:27.537-05:002009-09-03T17:44:27.537-05:00And more than Lennie Chism and Roger Smithrud COMB...And more than Lennie Chism and Roger Smithrud COMBINED.Johnny Northsidehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03694273579383113753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-55695851020884054292009-09-03T17:44:03.132-05:002009-09-03T17:44:03.132-05:00No, as far as I know, the optimum way would be to ...No, as far as I know, the optimum way would be to vote for your candidate and ONLY your candidate if that's how you feel. <br /><br />As for where Lennie pulls his votes from...hmmmm....<br /><br />Don, here's my numbers: <br /><br />Samuels: 65 percent<br />Johnson Lee: 30 percent<br />All Others: 5 percent, with Chipper The Entrepreneurial Squirrel getting more than Lennie Chism.Johnny Northsidehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03694273579383113753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-13605909092079200052009-09-03T16:31:41.764-05:002009-09-03T16:31:41.764-05:00i don't suppose you're allowed to choose S...i don't suppose you're allowed to choose Samuels for both your first and second choice (which would be the TRUTH).veg*nationhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06038204128140578947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-44883241760906058212009-09-03T16:02:08.492-05:002009-09-03T16:02:08.492-05:00Mortgage Geek, I think you are giving McKnight too...Mortgage Geek, I think you are giving McKnight too much and not giving Johnson-Lee enough. <br /><br />I see what you mean about starting early, but NJL already has name recognition - however some would argue that her name recognition is a disadvantage and not an advantage. <br /><br />However, I still see NJL and KM as pulling from the same base, and Lennie pulling a few votes from that same base and a few votes from the... the....the entrepreneurial base (????)MeganG.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-53563520522121487682009-09-03T15:40:29.170-05:002009-09-03T15:40:29.170-05:00If you vote for only one candidate, your vote stay...If you vote for only one candidate, your vote stays with that candidate until he or she is eliminated. Then your vote does not count towards anyone.<br /><br />So if someone votes for Chism and no one else, and Lennie is eliminated, their vote gets discarded. If someone votes for Samuels and no one else, their vote stays with Samuels until he is declared the winner.<br /><br />This is actually the basis for why some people claim IRV is unconstitutional. The person who votes for two or three candidates may be likely to have their vote "counted" more than the person who votes for only one.<br /><br />@ Don Allen: Frankly, those numbers are pure fantasy. If anyone has a shot at unseating Samuels, it's Kenya McKnight. At least she's been in it since before the precinct caucuses and she's been laying the groundwork of a campaign.<br /><br />I do agree that Smithrud is going to be a non-factor, and my numbers in the post were purely for the sake of easy math. But in an off-year, I don't see late-comers like Chism and Johnson Lee as having done enough of the upfront hard work that MOST successful campaigns need.Jeff Skreneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14597476540441866248noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-77836761177184302612009-09-03T15:17:07.424-05:002009-09-03T15:17:07.424-05:00Ooohh, I see what you meant now. I hadn't thou...Ooohh, I see what you meant now. I hadn't thought of that strategy. <br /><br />It's sort of mindboggling when you think of all the different scenarios and possibilities and "what ifs". <br /><br />It's going to be interesting to see what happens in November. Keep the hypotheticals coming.MeganG.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-42859461338493643852009-09-03T15:06:51.864-05:002009-09-03T15:06:51.864-05:00I was speaking more of a mathematical penalty than...I was speaking more of a mathematical penalty than an actual one, Megan. Suppose you want Samuels to win and never, not not ever X to win. Your best bet would be to vote Samuels AND at least one or two candidates that you are pretty darn certain will not garner a competitive share of the votes. This would deny X additional votes and give the votes to their competitors. I haven't studied Minneapolis' new IRV system to know whether this operates but in some cases, it's an openly promoted proposition meant to discourage people from just throwing away their other opportunities to rank order their preferences. That's a problem when you are transitioning from a single vote-ballot system to a rank order ballot.Margarethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04504204916698763787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-84142544740902486382009-09-03T13:43:20.883-05:002009-09-03T13:43:20.883-05:00Don, Not sure if your "walking sheets" s...Don, Not sure if your "walking sheets" show this or not, but most of the votes in the 5th ward come from Precinct 1 and 4 - Willard-Hay and Homewood. <br /><br />Uncle Lennie's is right in the middle. <br /><br />Lennie isn't going to win either of those precincts. <br /><br />I'll bet you a dollar he doesn't even get 10% of all votes turned out in ward.MeganG.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-53469545538091372282009-09-03T12:24:27.365-05:002009-09-03T12:24:27.365-05:00John, want to bet another dollar? I bet you a dol...John, want to bet another dollar? I bet you a dollar that it will take at least one additional round to get Don to 50% + 1. My gut says history will repeat itself, and just like the DFL endorsement, Don will win in the third round.Jeff Skreneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14597476540441866248noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-70884758075278509792009-09-03T10:16:26.573-05:002009-09-03T10:16:26.573-05:00Based on the information I have on the upcoming &q...Based on the information I have on the upcoming "home stretch" the numbers will look like this.<br /><br />Chism 45%<br />Samuels 22%<br />McKnight 15%<br />Johnson-Lee 18%<br />Smithrud - no factor<br /><br />SorryDon Allennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-59616628114819082782009-09-03T07:24:48.471-05:002009-09-03T07:24:48.471-05:00Margaret, from what I understand, IRV does not pen...Margaret, from what I understand, IRV does not penalize for voting for only one candidate. <br /><br />So what I will be doing is voting for Samuels and only Samuels. I won't be ranking any other votes. Just Samuels. Then no one will get any of my points except Samuels. <br /><br />I think this should be spread wide and far to help people understand that the challengers, especially the 3 challengers who seem to come from the same base of voters, are trying to game the new system by splitting as many votes as they can. <br /><br />Lawsuit. Lawsuit. Lawsuit. <br /><br />I'll give you 3 guesses as to who the attorney filing a lawsuit will *probably* be.MeganG.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9143409168229764050.post-66223694442477602872009-09-03T00:17:01.977-05:002009-09-03T00:17:01.977-05:00Thanks for taking us through that. I am a little m...Thanks for taking us through that. I am a little more concerned than you are that there will be a Samuels vote and an "anybody but Samuels" vote. The guy has fans, the guy has enemies. That could concievably make him the last choice of people voting for all the other candidates. He really needs to get his fans to the polls to vote him #1 by a significant margin. <br /><br />The other thing I am not clear on is whether this IRV system penalizes candidates whose supporters vote only once for their preferred candidate or whether marking only one vote for your preferred candidate will benefit them. A large fraction of people will do that this time because (a) they don't understand IRV or (b) they are annoyed with having to make more than one choice among candidates they know little about. In general, IRV promotes study of all the candidates but it will take time before people's behavior changes.Margarethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04504204916698763787noreply@blogger.com