Monday, January 25, 2010

Lt. Lindback Discusses Possible Factors For Crime Uptick...



At tonight's "Dessert With Don" event, where Council Member Don Samuels met with the public and panelists presented information to the audience--with cake thrown in for a bonus--Lt. Lindback of the Fourth Precinct discussed some of the possible reasons behind the January 2010 "crime uptick." This uptick in homicides came after an incredible reduction in the overall numbers...

At one point in the video, Lindback talks about certain trouble makers who get out of prison at the same time and start acting out at the same time. The evidence of this may be anecdotal but, hey, this is the first intelligent explanation I've heard, and I thought it would be useful to share with readers.

On a side note, the cake served was a leftover cake that wasn't picked up from a bakery and so was kindly donated to the "Dessert With Don" event. Reportedly, the cake said "Ghetto Fabulous" in the frosting.


9 comments:

Kevin Sawyer said...

How about this explanation. Given a small, arbitrary sample size, one can find results that gravitate from the mean. Over time, those results tend to revert to the mean.

Simple statistical adjustment would predict 48-55 homicide deaths this year. However, I'm not sure the laws of statistics apply so strictly to this sort of crime.

First of all, our idiotic mayor has famously cut back on the number of cops on the streets. The sort of assault crimes that are normally pursued prior to murder will be reduced.

Combine this with the fact that many retaliation shootings were (statistically speaking) held for this year. There are a variety of reasons for this, most prominently a foreclosure boom which required the scrum to find new digs (and new enemies, but also the simple fact that mustering up chutzpah to kill a dude because he "fronted you" takes time.

Well, the scrum have found new digs, and the thugs are mustering up their chutzpah. As such, I don't expect a standard regression until late March.

With that in mind, I think we are looking at 61 homicides this year. I hope I'm wrong, but if I'm right, I hope the people responsible are held to account for poor leadership.

Anonymous said...

You know, I wonder if the number of "shots fired" might really be as important a statistic as "homicides" to actually get realistic picture of what is happening on the ground. Shooters seem to have such terrible aim that whether or not they hit their intended target, or someone else entirely, or no one at all, seems pretty random.

MeganG. said...

@Anon 859am - absolutely - shots fired is a big indicator and from what I know it is used heavily within the department to strategize and police an area.

The actual crime stats such as homicides, robberies etc tends to be used by citizens and media as indicators but I think "potential" homicides/crimes such as shots fired is used alot by the police.

It's a big reason that it is very very very important to call 9-1-1 on everything suspicious or illegal that you see happening NOW. Even the day to day stuff that we are numb to such as the loitering, the street walking by the hookers, large groups of people congregated especially late at night after curfew.

The number of 9-1-1 calls in an area helps the police determine what resources and where to concentrate. So if you CAN call 9-1-1 on something illegal/suspicious - do it and consider it like racking up the 'squeaky wheel' points that will eventually help make the area better by being policed more closely/differently.

Anonymous said...

I have a question for everyone...

If it snowed twice as much in NOMI as it does in Calhoun, would you expect the City to plow your streets the same number of time in NOMI as they do in Calhoun?

Or, would you expect that the City expend the same amount of effort necessary to keep NOMI's streets clear of snow as they do Calhouns'?

This isn't intended as a slap in the face for the 4th Prcinct. I think they do an admirable job with the resources they have available to them.

Has anyone ever looked into the budgetary differences betwen prceincts to determine whether or not the City is actually focusing the law enforcement expenditures proportinately to where the crime is actually occuring?

It's just an honest question looking for feedback...

The Hawthorne Hawkman said...

@ anon 1:43 - It's that philosophy exactly that led to the city designating "cluster" areas such as the EcoVillage in Hawthorne or Cottage Park in Jordan. RT has said it himself at events at each of these places.

It's not enough to simply allocate the same level of resources and attention everywhere. Instead, real change happens when we direct the greatest level of resources to the greatest areas of need.

MeganG. said...

@Anon 143 - At last night's Dessert with Don problem properties event, I heard Don say the 4th precinct has 30% of the force up here. And we have something like 17% of the population. I can't exactly remember the population statistic, it was somewhere around 17% but for sure he said we have 30% of the force here.

Anonymous said...

Megan G Said:
"At last night's Dessert with Don problem properties event, I heard Don say the 4th precinct has 30% of the force up here."

Anon 1:43 says:
With roughly 800 sworn officers, that would make the number of officers working out of the 4th precinct roughly 240. Somehow, I don't think that's entirely accurate.

More to the point, from a statistically weighted standpoint, it'd be interesting to find-out what precentage of the city-wide TOTAL crime occurs in the area the 4th precenct is responsible for and be able to get an honest (and accurate) answer as to whether or not s proportionate amount is expended within the precinct.

My gut tells me we'd find-out that although it's getting better, that it's still not proportionate. I suspect that there's many more law enforcement fte's be expended in places like Calhoun, or Kenwood on plicing matters that are (and should be) much lower priority.

Anonymous said...

32.56% of statistics are made up.

Anonymous said...

Anon 9:01 said:
32.56% of statistics are made up.

Anon 1:43 says:
and 67.44% of people believe them...